India and the US are close to finalizing a long-awaited trade agreement that could reduce tariffs on Indian exports to 15–16% from the current 50%, according to people familiar with the talks. Energy and agriculture are central to the negotiations, with India likely to gradually cut Russian oil imports—a key factor behind the additional 25% levy on its exports. Russia currently supplies about 34% of India’s crude, while the US meets around 10% of its oil and gas needs.
India is also considering raising its import quota for non-GM US maize from 0.5 million tonnes, while keeping duties unchanged at 15%. The proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) could be announced during the ASEAN Summit later this month, pending political clearance on sensitive sectors.
Officials indicated that India may quietly reduce Russian crude purchases, with state-run refiners diversifying towards US sources. The US, in turn, is expected to ease trade restrictions. Experts said the deal reflects Washington’s push to strengthen supply chains amid tensions with China, though they cautioned India to safeguard its interests in agriculture, digital trade, and intellectual property while ensuring flexibility through a periodic review mechanism.
