International oil markets registered a fourth consecutive session of robust gains, keeping Brent crude firmly anchored above $85 per barrel as intensifying military actions in the Middle East sparked severe energy supply anxieties. The renewed upward momentum was driven by fresh U.S. airstrikes targeting Iranian military installations, which followed the reimposition of a strict naval blockade on Iranian ports. With Tehran labeling the conflict an “existential war” and threatening to disrupt traffic in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb gateway in the Red Sea, energy traders quickly priced in a heightened risk of prolonged maritime transit delays.
This geopolitical friction has raised immediate alarms over the security of critical shipping routes that collectively handle roughly one-fifth of the world’s petroleum and liquefied natural gas exports. The threat of a broader supply squeeze is further amplified by a significant drawdown in U.S. commercial crude inventories, which have plunged to their lowest seasonal levels since 2018. Industry analysts warned that while mediation efforts by neighboring countries continue behind the scenes, any tangible disruption to physical crude flows could easily trigger a sharp spike. According to prominent investment banks, Brent futures could rapidly test the $110 threshold in the final quarter of the year if Gulf export pathways remain compromised, whereas a diplomatic breakthrough and subsequent production recovery could send prices sliding back toward the $60 range by year-end.
